Bouvet Watch: Comparative Solar Condition Analysis

May, 2017’s average sunspot number was 18.8, which is about what it was like for VK0EK. In fact, the average for this year is somewhere close to this. This snapshot is from the web site, and it differs from the NOAA website:

The difference is not the “actual”, but the Predicted. In both cases, the real average has consistently under performed the predicted. What has been most interesting to me is that had updated their prediction to include that “knee” – and it is as optimistic as you can get for where we are in this cycle. We truly are flirting with the bottom of the cycle. The top of that little “uplift” will be this coming October – only 4 months away, and while that’s the “last gasp” of somewhat “OK” solar conditions – things will still be OK in January, when 3Y0Z is on the air. In fact, September and the Autumnal Equinox is only 3 months away – I must be really busy at work – time is almost going too fast these days! I mean – we are scraping the bottom of the barrel here – but for such an under performing cycle – its as good as it gets. I expect some very good conditions this Fall and Winter – but they will be short and sweet. This does bode well for Bouvet!

It does seem quite ironic that there is that “knee” and even an uptick that might occur in October, 2017 and that conditions will still be “elevated” from what NOAA predicts through January, 2018 – and then we will most definitely quickly drop to the bottom.

Lets compare what they predict for the Bouvet DX-pedition and what I worked at the same time in the last cycle with very similar conditions. Conditions in September 2007 were the same as they are now:

3B7 is pretty close to Tromelin

3B7C – Agalega and St. Brandon. This one is the best clue as to what to expect because it is much farther away than 3Y, and I know for a fact that I worked them Long Path. In fact, for one QSO, I was in a minivan parked with a 102″ whip, IC-706MKIIG and an AH-4 tuner over the end of the Prosser Creek Reservoir just north of Truckee, CA. And I worked them on 40M this way! Its was the most amazing thing – their signal at sunrise was simply amazing and I never ever expected to work them this way. I remember that Winter was not far away in the Sierras at that time – it took some hot coffee to keep me warm.

I worked them on the Long Path on 80, 40 and 20M, and Short Path on 30M. I remember their operators and signals were just the best of the best – The 5 Star DX Group – who are the world record holders for most QSO’s with their T32C DX-pedition.

Here is the most hopeful news. I worked these other entities for ATNO’s:

  • BS7H – Scarborough
  • D60VB – Vlad in Comoros
  • VU7RG  – Lakshwadweep
  • 3B9/G3TXF – Nigel on Rodrigues
  • VP8LP – very surprisingly on 12M

Besides VP8LP, all were 20M or lower, except Vlad on Comoros – which was 17M. That opening to Vlad was very short – maybe 10 minutes. VU7 was open for about 1/2 hour – but very workable for about 20 minutes only. All of this is good DX, and quite rare – proving that you just never know when you will get those breaks. I also know that in 2010 I had a few like this – and the conditions were also this “bad”.

Comoros, St. Brandon, Rodrigues and Lakshwadweep are actually not entities that I would ever expect to work given “the numbers”, but there almost seems to be some “antipodal magic” going on here. Lets see what Father John – ON4UN says in his “good book”:

Sure enough – on pages 1-34 and 1-35, John discusses “Antipodal Focusing” and Signal Ducting, and I am sure that this must have been the case for me in that mini van. Its one of a handful of QSO’s that I will never forget.

Here are my recommendation(s)

  1. Make sure you are there for what will be pretty short openings
  2. Make sure you have good Low Band antennas, but 20, 17 and 15M might also be good. The lions share of the QSO’s will be 40 – 20M – I am SURE of this
  3. I do think having full power will be needed as well – although the team is very good about working out the band and giving everyone a chance. I have a story about my power situation – in a blog that I will post later this week. One reader will give me hell I am sure!



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