A few months back, spaceweather.com revised their prediction to show a “plateau” or “knee” in their Cycle 24 prediction, and the NOAA site just kept their previous prediction which shows how under performing this cycle has been.
Of course, this is like a Festivus Miracle, that right when you need the cycle to hold on just a little bit longer, it does.
If you look carefully at 2004 – 2006, you will see that there was this “last gasp” of upward activity before we hit bottom, so it is not that abnormal. The irony is that these DX-pedition planners just happened to hit the peak of Cycle 24 while on FT5ZM, and will probably get the best of this down part of the cycle for 3Y0Z.
This chrt doesn’t even have the big jump we have seen the past few days – where the SSN almost hit 100, which is quite amazing – but look what happened late 2005 – and then right at the turn of the year into 2006 – where conditions also swung really low.
Lets hope these big swings bring one last great big uptick when 3Y0Z is on the air.
There is still that QRZ.COM page for 3Y0I, but I remember the strange 3Y0G non event, so I still put my biggest hope on 3Y0Z.
After Bouvet, I will only need Glorioso to have them all. If they add Kosovo to the list (and I expect they will at some point), that will be a chip shot, so while I’d welcome a new entity, its no big deal as far as ATNO’s go.
I’ve gotten to the point where I believe Glorioso won’t be activated for quite some time – so I have to keep busy with other things – else I’d grow cob webs in my shack like I did during the last cycle bottom.
I’m betting on irony – that Glorioso will be activated at the bottom of Cycle 24 and that I will work my last QSO DXCC wise using a friends super contest station – in fact – I might do that and bring a bottle of champagne just because it would deserve that moment.
I do expect that I will work the last 13 on 160 before I work Glorioso, that seems to be the way its headed.
I’ll guess a year when I’m done with DXCC – 2020 – or 19 years after becoming a DX-er, and just a few years before I retire.