3Y0Z Watch: Cycle 24 Bottom and 160 – 15M

Thank goodness the 3Y0Z is going now and not later. We are sooooo close to the beginning of the bottom of Cycle 24. HOWEVER, the SSN is really not a great indicator of what to expect from 3Y0Z.

Last July I noticed a “knee” that was predicted for the end of 2017. t that time, we were experiencing many solar disturbances, so the SSN wasn’t the real story, the noise was.

We are starting the year out right propagation wise. Fingers crossed that this is the “new trend” because its perfect for 3Y0Z! Based on the 36 or so day sun rotation, this is great news!

We have the same SSN as when VK0EK was on the air, but a MUCH better situation noise wise. This is going to really help 3Y0Z, and God willing everything goes as planned – I truly think this DXpedition will be one “for the ages”.

We on the West Coast might actually be OK on 160 – 15M, which is my wildest hope. I base this on the fact that I worked FT5ZM, which was a much farther and trickier path, yet FT5ZM was easy on so many bands. My conservative guess is that I can work them on 40 – 17M, but I think that might be too conservative.

The reason why all of this is so important is that the need for 3Y/B is huge. There will be insane pileups. The hedge aginst this is twofold:

  1. They are strong on so many bands that they “process” the demand and burn it down quickly because they can be worked on so many bands by so many in so many highly populated ham areas
  2.  There will be “spotlight propagtion” where the West Coast has at least a sliver of advantage. 3Y0Z will have to ask for West Coast only, and I am sure they will to get a reprieve from EU and East Coast – not to mention – EU and East Coast will quickly work them and West Coast will then come next anyway

Think FT5ZM only more exciting and even better!

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