|1.||P5||DPRK (NORTH KOREA)|
|5.||KH1||BAKER HOWLAND ISLANDS|
|6.||CE0X||SAN FELIX ISLANDS|
|12.||3Y/P||PETER 1 ISLAND|
|16.||ZS8||PRINCE EDWARD & MARION ISLANDS|
|17.||VP8O||SOUTH ORKNEY ISLANDS|
|19.||PY0T||TRINDADE & MARTIM VAZ ISLANDS|
|20.||PY0S||SAINT PETER AND PAUL ROCKS|
List from May 2018 Clublog Most Wanted List
Here are the one’s I think will stay in limbo for quite some time – due to political, access or cost issues that may even keep some of these off limits for good:
P5 (that phoney baloney so called “summit” has already been walked back as I had expected), BS7H – will become a Chinese concrete base soon (right from underneath the US eye), YV0 – Venezuela has political issues for sure – I doubt the Venezuelan Navy has a big charter to go to Aves.
Environmental Access issues – FT5/W, KH7/K, FT/G – probably PY0S. These have all become as tightly managed as Navassa or Desecheo.
Cost – 3Y/P and VP8/O
Entities with the highest probability of an activation – VK0/M and KH1 – for sure, KH3, FT5/X, KH4, ZS8, SV/A, PY0T – just because there are either bases or contractors visiting such bases.
Wildcards – 3Y0/B – no recent news from 3Y0I though – but last heard they seemed to have the finances in line – but I haven’t heard any foundation offering a grant to them. I’m really waiting for that before I get my hopes up. I think San Felix and Pratas both have a better than 50% chance of an activation, maybe Glorioso – because the French Team is just so good – if it can be done – we have the best team to attempt it.
It will be interesting to see when the next “surprise” activation happens. I used to think being at the bottom of the cycle had a dampening affect on activations of Top 10 or Top 20 – but I feel that if there is an entity that can be activated – and the US F&W or other organization allows access – someone will activate it regardless.
My guess as to what the next big announcement will be?
KH7/K – Kure. It is long overdue and I bet someone announces it before the end of 2018 – to happen maybe in 2019. I also do think 3Y0I will happen in 2018 – but my confidence is very seriously “guarded” on that one. We’ve heard several announcements that went nowhere regarding Bouvet – and also know it ain’t easy to activate in any case.