Cycle 25, Bouvet and Glorioso

This graph is from a very interesting web site – http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/SC24web/SC24.html

I know that we have already had a Cycle 25 sunspot, so it will be interesting how long the minimum will be between Cycle 24 and 25. This graph shows how unusual Cycle 24 was at its bottom. It was deeper and longer than the past three cycles.

This is one of the better web sites to check out if you are wondering what might happen between now and the peak of Cycle 25. One big take away for me is just how abnormal the bottom of Cycle 23 was, and that the bottom of Cycle 24 might not be as deep or long as Cycle 23. How high will Cycle 25 go? That is too hard to tell – but I remember how ridiculously all over the map the predictions were for Cycle 24, so this is a “just wait and see” thing for me.

I am now convinced that I will get one last chance to work Bouvet (I am sure the 3Y0I guys will try again – all of their pride is wrapped up in this, and I have learned from “driven” DXpedition leaders that once they fixate on such a project, it does happen). My only hope is that the 3Y0I and some of the 3Y0Z guys would work together and also do a proper fund raising. Go next October and make it a success. I think its time for everyone to join forces, and that the clubs and foundations need to support whomever goes. But for that to happen, the 3Y0I and 3Y0Z teams need to put aside some of their attitudes.

I also expect that the French Team will activate Glorioso – but that it will be the last time that entity is activated in my lifetime. This means I very much expect that if you started DXCC today – the probability is you won’t make it to Honor Roll #1, and I even think making Honor Roll wouldn’t be possible. I knew things were trending this way, and the numbers aren’t there to support these activities moving forward. There are just way too many entities that are too expensive or environmentally hard to access. Just as important is that the number and age of “well healed” DXpedition Teams is dwindling. More will have to come from non US countries, like 3Y0I, but without US Foundation and Club Support, good luck.

I’ve decided after visiting my neighbors awesome ham radio shack (and having some fun socializing at the same time) that ending my Honor Roll #1 pursuit at another shack is what I will do. I’ve worked all the rest from my own shack, and sure – I will also try to work these from my shack, but also won’t do what I did with FT5GA – suffered without a peep from them at my shack while others ran up to the Stanford ham shack and worked them. I don’t need this purist BS any more. I’ve moved on to just having fun – DXing definitely started feeling like work and not fun – so that’s the reason I decided to move into a new area – the vintage gear space.

And in getting into the vintage space I have made new ham radio friends. I love the passion in each of these genres – they are like their own little worlds, and they are all interesting and fun to check out – kind of like going to your favorite amusement park when you were a kid. Lots of fun rides – my favorite amusement park was the Boardwalk at Wildwood at the Jersey Shore . . .

I do expect that I will get serious about QRP and CW – that is waiting in the wings after I get the KWS-1 on the air. Of course, I am always dreaming of antenna projects, but there is only so much you can do at your QTH – and I know I won’t be buying any big properties when I retire, so in a way, what I am doing now at my QTH is about the speed of what I will be doing when I do leave Orinda. I will certainly make sure I don’t move into a place with HOA’s and CC&R’s that preclude at least a flagpole vertical or a wire up in the trees. But the plan will be to bring the US Towers ALM-31 Crank Up tower and SteppIR UrbanBeam.

2 Comments on “Cycle 25, Bouvet and Glorioso

  1. Here’s the thing…

    DX’ing and ham radio aren’t a matter of life and death. This despite the comments you read and the very rare occasions when people try very hard to activate very rare entities that just are plain challenging to life and limb.

    So, the fun is how you define it.

    As you say, the DXCC Honor Roll, never mind the top spot, is headed to a place where it’s probably unattainable for anybody relatively new to the hobby. So, anybody who places their fun attainment into that basket is doomed to misery. You really have to define what’s fun for you.

    One more comment… Perhaps putting yourself in a position where you focus on a predefined end goal isn’t a good thing after all. Maybe trying to work what you can with QRP and wire antennas is a better idea. You know then that the Honor Roll is a dumb goal, but you can still give a good effort. Just what’ll happen when you work those last two? You’ve chosen to move on to other things. But, what if someone manages a way to make Elbonia a DXCC entity? Then what?

    A significant number of DXCC “countries” were brought on board just to give some guys a chance to rile up the troops by providing a new DXCC counter and giving them a chance to be in the spotlight for a while. Now, a significant number of those are on the list of places where there won’t be activity for a lonnnnnng time. Just who does that help?

    Like

    • Agree 100%. I even have this funny idea to put up a Bobtail Curtain and just work whatever it can work and do it with the Gold Dust Twins and QRP rigs that I have – no goals per se – unless something tickles my fancy. One pursuit that always sounded fun – as a “casual pursuit” is County Hunting. NOT doing it via the nets I have heard – just casually and not with any time frame in mind. I love geography, and love reading about the different places around our country. In fact the “game” would be to work someone – anyone and any mode – and then look up their County and read about it – its geography, people and history. Make it more of a rich learning experience instead of some certificate or plaque.

      I’m really glad I had the “OCD DXCC Disease” enough to make what really were my big goals, but I also realized that I needed to branch out and diversify if I wanted to stay active in the hobby. I’ve read how some guys made #1 Honor Roll and then sold all their gear and got out of the hobby. I even got to that point – and I realized that too much of a good thing can be too much.

      This time around – I want to expand and try several new things all at once – to make sure I keep the diversity of interest going. I still have several Raspberry Pi and Arduino boards and peripherals, SteppIR motors, drivers, etc, and have heard that the Raspberry Pi Version 4 board is about to be released. I do still want to drive one of these old Collins 180S-1 antennas tuners remotely and via WiFI – and hopefully configured as an L network at the base of a 40M Bobtail curtain.

      The Bobtail Curtain will have to be set up pretty much next to my creek bed – which is long enough. In fact, its time to use Google Earth and map this out. I can’t work on it until maybe June – right now the creek bed has too much green wet tall grass and is riddled with ticks.

      Onward! There is way too much fun to have out there!

      Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

%d bloggers like this: